Hanlon's Razor (Intent vs. Incompetence)

Hanlon’s Razor is an adage that states:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

This principle suggests that when something goes wrong, it’s often due to oversight, error, or ignorance rather than intentional wrongdoing. It helps us avoid jumping to worst-case assumptions about someone’s motives and encourages us to consider simpler or more mundane explanations first.

Connection to Occam's Razor

Hanlon’s Razor can be considered a special case or subset of Occam’s Razor, focused explicitly on human intent and behavior. It guides us to prefer simple explanations—like incompetence, oversight, or misunderstanding—over more complex explanations involving intentional malice or elaborate conspiracies, particularly when there’s no clear evidence for ill intent.

Refuting Conspiracy Theories

Hanlon’s Razor provides a practical way to challenge these unfounded narratives by encouraging skepticism toward complex, intentional wrongdoing explanations when simpler, evidence-based alternatives exist.

Conspiracy theories often require multiple coordinated acts of malice or deception. However, based on Hanlon’s Razor, incompetence, misunderstandings, or human error typically offer a far simpler explanation for the same events.